The yield curve, an indicator from the bond market just a few months ago set off alarms about the risk of a recession. Now it has gone back to normal, and that signal has been met with relief in the markets. But as far as the economy is concerned, it might not matter. Once the yield curve has predicted a recession, one usually follows even if that signal changes later.

The bond market’s yield curve is perilously close to predicting a recession — something it has done with surprising accuracy — and it’s become a big topic on Wall Street. Some economists on Wall Street think the economy could be growing at around a nearly 5 percent annualized clip this quarter. But if the current economic vigor is only reflecting a short-term stimulus coming from the Trump administration’s tax cut, then some kind of slowdown is to be expected.

President Trump promised that his tax cut would encourage companies to invest in factories, workers and wages, setting off a spending spree that would reinvigorate the American economy. Companies have announced plans for some of those investments. But so far, companies are using much of the money for something with a more narrow benefit: buying their own shares.